RUSSIAN MISSILES HAVE LITTLE IMPACT

Kalibr cruise missile

Beyond big BOOM! noises and fires and all, Russia’s missiles that have been launched against Ukraine since Monday are not having the impact the Yard Punk was hoping for. The best the Russian armed forces are capable of is bursts of rage and remaining open to committing any crime possible, but its actions are ultimately self-defeating.

On the other hand, the Ukrainian attack on the Crimean Bridge was typical of how they wage war. Known as the Kerch Bridge, it was a legitimate military target that has been helpful to the invaders’ war effort; far more important than the road link are the railroad lines that run across it. The Russian army depends on trains for supply of heavy equipment and ammunition, a major liability since the Ukrainians have captured or destroyed so many Russian vehicles, leaving the invaders without enough trucks to ship supplies to locations remote from working rail lines. Another attack could knock out the bridge completely.

Using their HIMARS weapons, the Ukrainians have cut the rail lines from the areas of the east to Russian forces in the south and west. Everything needed to hold off Ukrainian counteroffensives in the Kherson region must be shipped by rail over the Crimean Bridge and up through the Crimean peninsula. If the Ukrainians sever that line completely, Russian stockpiles at the front would soon run down, food and medical equipment would likely grow scarce, and the invaders would eventually lose the ability to mount sustained operations.

Russia’s dependence on this one supply line has been a constant source of worry. The Ukrainians identified a logistical target of potentially decisive importance, secretly developed a plan to eliminate it, kept word from leaking out, and then executed the plan with considerable success.

The operation came as a huge shock in Moscow. Ukrainian officials have told media outlets that their country’s intelligence services had used a truck bomb on the bridge, but they have also trolled Moscow, circulating multiple theories about what happened, including the possibility the attack was an act of sabotage by an anti-Putin political group in Russia. (Earlier today, Russian domestic-intelligence officials announced the arrest of eight people, including five Russian citizens, in connection with the incident.) The operation and subsequent propaganda efforts are bound to make Russians fear that the Ukrainians will attack the bridge again. This is why they reacted as they did.

In response to Putin’s “birthday present,” Russia's biggest air strikes against Ukraine since the start of the war have killed at least 19 people, driven thousands of Ukrainians back into air raid shelters and knocked out electricity in hundreds of towns and villages.

While the strikes, which have been denounced by Western leaders for deliberately hitting civilian targets, have been hailed by the Russian warhawks in Moscow as a turning point that demonstrates Russia's resolve, Western military analysts point to the fact the strikes came at a staggering financial cost, while depleting a dwindling supply of long-range missiles that the Russians no longer have the ability to replace, and that they hit no major military targets.

Thus, they are unlikely to change the course of a war going badly for Moscow.

Lawrence Freedman, emeritus professor of war studies at King's College London, who posts the “Content is Freed” email newsletter analyzing the war, stated in his most recent post that, "Russia lacks the missiles to mount attacks of this sort often, as it is running out of stocks and the Ukrainians are claiming a high success rate in intercepting many of those already used. This is not therefore a new war-winning strategy but a sociopath's tantrum."

“Moscow Margie,” Margarita Simonyan, head of RT, Russia's state-run overseas media channel and the Yard Punk’s version of “Baghdad Bob,”said Russia had been waiting for the perfect time to demonstrate its strength. Quoting a proverb, she tweeted: "A Russian harnesses his horses slowly but drives them quickly."

Former Putin stand-in “president” Dmitry Medvedev, now demoted to deputy head of the Yard Punk's advisory security council, said Russia would now be able to widen its objectives: "The goal of our future actions, in my view, should be the complete dismantling of the political regime of Ukraine."

According to Ukrainian sources, Russia fired 83 cruise missiles on Monday and 28 on Tuesday; 43 were shot down by Ukrainian air defenses on Monday and 20 on Tuesday. Moscow said on Monday it fired more than 70 and all its targets were hit. Both sides are in agreement that the attack was on a huge scale, unseen since Russia's initial wave of air strikes on the first night of the war back in February.

Each Kalibr cruise missile is estimated to cost more than $6.5 million, meaning the Yard Puink blew through around half a billion dollars worth of missiles on Monday alone. Western military analysts have no firm figures for how many missiles Russia has left, but for months they have pointed to indicators suggesting the supply is limited. And importantly, with the sanctions cutting Russia off from high-technology parts needed for these weapons, they cannot be replaced.

As far back as July, Joseph Dempsey and Douglas Barrie of the International Institute for Strategic Studies noted that Russia was increasingly using anti-ship missiles to strike targets on the ground. They suggest that Moscow is having to muster its remaining conventionally armed land attack cruise missile resources more carefully.

President Zelenskiy said Monday that securing more air defences for Ukraine was his number one priority. Western leaders including U.S. President Joe Biden have promised more systems, though it takes time to deliver them.

Ukraine now relies on Soviet-era air defence systems such as the S-300. Washington promised several months ago to send its sophisticated NASAMS system, which is used to defend high-value targets like the White House. On Tuesday an announcement was made that the shipment is being sped up after saying in late September that delivery was still two months away.

Ukraine also received the first of four IRIS-T air defence systems promised by Germany on Tuesday. In practice, military experts say Ukraine will probably never be able to defend its entire land area - the second largest in Europe after Russia itself - from attacks on scattered low-priority targets.

"Bottom line: Just like it was difficult to stop Saddam from launching SCUDs, and as much as we want to help Ukraine, it's challenging to completely counter all Putin's war crimes that unfortunately include launching missile strikes against civilian targets," tweeted Mark Hertling, former commander of U.S. land forces in Europe.

Monday's attacks show Ukraine is already far from defenseless. While Kyiv's claim to have shot down more than half of the missiles is impossible to verify, Russia did not hit any targets with the highest strategic value.

Russia still faces the same strategic difficulties it did before Monday's attacks: demoralized and poorly equipped forces spread along a 620-mile frontline, with long supply lines vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks.

As Professor Phillips Payson O’Brien put it, “Events since Saturday illustrate why the war has unfolded as it has. One tightly targeted, carefully planned, and well-executed operation opens up the possibility of great strategic gains for Ukraine. In contrast, an expensive, showy, brutal campaign by Putin’s military forces has only made Russia’s task harder. The Russians have misunderstood the fundamental dynamics of this war from the start, and their inability to adjust continues to be a great advantage for Ukraine.”

Russia's logistics system is exhausted and no Russian wants to fight the Yard Punk’s war in Ukraine.

Please consider becoming part of the TAFM community by upgrading to paid subscriber to support the work. It’s only $7/month or $70/year, saving you $14.

Comments are for the paid subscribers.