PREDICTING NOVEMBER

54 days out from the election of November 8, 2022 - which will be, one way or the other, the most significant election since 1860 in terms of what the outcome will create in 2024 - everyone is biting their nails down to the quick.

Which prediction is right? A Red Wave washes away Biden? The Democrats hold the Senate and lose the House? The Republicans come up short all around?

Right now, no one can say with any certainty, and there are strong arguments to be made for all possibilities.

Over the last couple of weeks there have been write-ups about the possibility or probability the 2022 political polls will underestimate Republican strength as they did in 2020. Nate Cohn has one in The New York Times today. Cohn’s analysis is particularly interesting because he’s been a consistent skeptic of polls in recent cycles regarding their ability to accurately gauge the strength of the Trump coalition. The gist of the argument is that if you take the polling error from 2016 and 2020 and plug it into current polls you go from Democrats being in a strong position for holding and even expanding their senate majority to more like a 50-50 odds of holding the chamber at all. On the House, a GOP majority and maybe a significant one is still basically a given.

The one thing that stands out about these analyses is that they ignore 2018, which was both a good year for Democrats and also a midterm. Trump wasn’t on the ballot, but as even he said “I really am, so vote that way.” And we did and we took back the House and impeached the traitor twice. So there’s a decent argument that it’s a more apt comparison to this year’s midterm. But it’s ignored.

Trump is on the ballot, every day, in every thing he does.

More importantly, particularly with today’s news, the fact that the three elections in which Democrats overperformed and won ALL involved campaigns that opposed the Supremem Court’s overthrow of Roe v. Wade, seems not to matter to the polls or to the “geniuses” of the political press.

Kansas saw 500,000 more people vote than had voted in the 2018 mid-terms, and it was because there was a campaign to oppose a Republican attempt to take the right to an abortion out of the Kansas constitution.

Upstate New York saw a Democrat win in a traditionally-Republican congressional district on a campaign promising to defend choice.

Te Democrat won in Alaska with a platform defending choice.

Republican candidates have been scrubbing their websites of statements opposing abortion rights and anti-abortion candidates have been trying to convince voters that they’re not really against abortion at all.

So, in a way, it was refreshing for the biggest hypocrite in the Senate, Senator Lindsey Graham to announce Monday night that that he will introduce a national abortion ban bill in the Senate on Wednesday, and then come out today and let himself get snookered in his press conference into saying that it would only happen if Republicans win the House and Senate. Thank you very much, Miz Linzey, for reminding every Democrat and Independent out there just what the stakes are in November.

On its face it’s hard to understand why Graham or any Republican is doing this. Since it is universally agreed that the Dobbs decision has been damaging to GOP midterm prospects. Most Republicans interested in winning elections this year have wanted to calm rather than churn these waters, claiming that Republican support for a national abortion ban is just Democratic propaganda with the pitch that if you’re from a blue or purple state you don’t have anything to worry about.

Hell, Graham himself was on Fox as recently as August 7 saying the question of banning or allowing abortion was a “matter for the states.” That’s been the GOP position ever since the blowout in Kansas demonstrated to them that the car they’d caught had a good likelihood of either killing them or taking off a leg as they tried to hang onto it.

There’s never been any question that Republicans would try to push a national ban on abortions as soon as they had the power to do so. Mitch McConnell said so after the Dobbs decision was announced but before the Kansas vote. It’s hard to see why any of them would want to advertise that fact now - even if they have a landslide victory in November, no bill like this will become law before 2025 at the earliest, and that is if Trump wins re-election.

Graham calls his ban after 15 weeks a ban on “late term” abortions, trying to get himself into the sweet spot where even many people who otherwise support choice get squeamish about it. That’s not really true though.

While more than 90% of abortions take place in the first 13 weeks of pregnancy, abortions after 15 week haven’t normally been considered “late term” abortion. But a Republican saying this underscores the campaign importance for Democrats of focusing on restoring Roe’s protections, which is what the Democrats’ legislation - the Women’s Health Protection Act of 2022 - does.

The issue of Roe especially since the Dobbs decision overturning it, has incredible power. Passing the Women’s Health Protection Act means restoring what the Court took away. It also keeps the debate away from notional third trimester abortions that virtually never happen except in medical emergency or in cases of profound malformation or unviability. Saying you want to bring back Roe’s protections is simple, straightforward and powerful. It is the most honest answer because Roe actually allowed for significant restrictions and the best in political terms since to every scare story and misleading claim the answer is Roe allowed restrictions and I support bringing back Roe.

The Democratic position is the powerful and popular one — nitpicking and distraction is the GOP’s best angle.

Republicans want to portray this as a reasonable national compromise, setting a national standard as some journalists put it. But that’s not what it is. It doesn’t set a national 15 or 20 week standard. All the total restrictions which are now common in Texas and the other anti-abortions states states stay in place. Graham’s “choice” takes the Mississippi law which brought us the Dobbs decision and imposes it on every blue state. What Mississippi passed and which was treated as extreme a year ago will become the law in California, New York, Illinois, Washington state and everywhere else. It’s a blue state abortion ban.

Republicans say they want to leave the decision to the states. Unless a state protects abortion rights. In which case Republicans want to ban it for them.

It is critical at every stage — though I suspect most won’t need it pointed out — that this is a national ban. Even if it’s 15 weeks versus from the moment of conception, it is a national ban. So if you’re relying on your blue state politics making this someone else’s problem you’re out of luck. It’s coming for you. And it certainly won’t stop with a 15 week ban.

This move by Republicans underscores a central reality: there will be national abortion legislation. It’s a matter of who writes it. Will it be Republicans starting with a 15 week ban and tightening restrictions going forward or will it be Democrats restoring the Roe protections which were the status quo ante?

This makes it all the more critical that Democrats make clear that if they keep the House and get two additional Senate seats they will pass that law in January 2023. Not just pass it. Pass it in January 2023, the first week Congress reconvenes. If they hold the House and add two Senate seats.

Graham said at a press conference announcing his 15-week abortion ban bill, “I look forward to the debate. I look forward to the vote. If we take back the House and Senate, I can assure you we’ll have a vote on our bill. If the Democrats are in charge, I don’t know if we’ll ever have a vote on our bill.”

Sen. Graham doesn’t realize that many voters, especially young voters and women, see never getting a vote on his 15-week abortion ban bill as the goal. Republicans have made many unforced errors during this election cycle, but Lindsey Graham holding a press conference to announce why Americans who care about personal liberty should vote for Democratic candidates could be one of the biggest.

For whatever reason he did this, Graham is helping Democrats make clear that abortion is on the ballot, just as much as it was in Kansas and will be in Michigan. Every bit that becomes more clear is good for abortion rights and good for Democratic fortunes.

Democrats need to organize around that pledge immediately.

It’s the demonstrated path to victory.

Lindsey Graham could have introduced his bill in two months after the election. The fact he thinks a federal ban taking away freedom from a majority of the population makes his party look mainstream is such an epic misfire that it is fair to question his s grasp on reality.

Robert Hubbell pointed out in his Substack blog last night:

In many races where Democrats are leading, it is too early to predict whether they will win because neither candidate has exceeded the threshold necessary to win the race—51%. Ignore the noise. Democrats are enthusiastic, mobilized, organized, and winning in fundraising and registering new voters (especially women). That’s what we can control. Ignore the pollsters as they try to figure out what that lump is they are sitting on. We must focus on executing our strategy.

I keep stressing historical events like the Battles of Midway and Guadalcanal, that changed the course of the war. I want to re-emphasize that before they turned out as they did, those outcomes were considered difficult if not unlikely. But in both cases people buckled down and did their duty and when the breaks came, they were able to take advantage of them. Victory in both cases involved going “all in.”

Going “All In” is our only strategy now.

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