NEVADA - AN UNEQUIVOCAL TOSS-UP?

We’re now 30 days out from the most important election of our lives ever, and the life of the country since 1860.

I’m going to look in detail over the next weeks at races where their outcomes will likely determin the overall outcome of the elections in November.

John Ralston, the best political observer in the state, says of the election from Governor to Dog-Catcher, “It’s an unequivocal toss-up.”

What has kept Nevada Democratic in recent years has been the success of union organizing in Las Vegas and Reno, the two major population centers, where the major industries are the casinos. Both have a strong urban working class. Clark County, home of Las Vegas, and Washoe County, home of Reno, constitute the overwhelming majority of the state’s population, with the deeply-conservative rural remainder of the state giving a solid base of support for Republicans.

The Nevada Independent/OH Predictive Insights likely voters poll was released today. It is the result of polling between September 20-29.

Bearing in mind that polls are “a snapshot in time,” the issues driving voters’ decision-making are these:

For 35% of respondents, jobs and the economy are top issues; for 18% education leads, while 12% list health care and 11% immigration. “Something not listed” was cited by 12 percent. Abortion was not listed.

One of the poll-takers noted that mid-terms are the most difficult to poll because the major question is who is going to show up, something that will not be known with any certainty until election day.

The poll has a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points. It surveyed 36% Republicans, 36 % Democrats and 28% independents or third parties. The most recent statewide voter registration numbers are Democratic 33%, Republican 30% with nonpartisan or third party 36.8%. This makes Nevada the definition of a swing state.

Overall, Governor Steve Sisolak and Senator Catherine Cortez Masto narrowly trail their respective opponents, Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo and former Attorney General Adam Laxalt.

Outside groups have targeted the high-profile Senate race, which could determine control of the Senate, with tens of millions of dollars in advertising.

Laxalt leads Cortez Masto 45% - 43%, solidly within the poll’s margin of error. This poll is consistent with other polls that show the race within the margin of error, but also with a consistent, narrow lead for Laxalt. Laxalt, the state Attorney General and son of former governor Paul Laxalt, has downplayed support for Trump and says Biden won in 2020.

The poll shows enough voters remain undecided to swing the election either direction, with 7% stating they are unsure of their choice while another 3% said they would select “none of these candidates,” an option on Nevada ballots.

The poll shows margin-of-error races in both of the population centers. Cortez Masto leads 45-44 in Clark County, while Washoe County has the two in a 43-43 dead heat. The state’s rural counties continue to show their traditional conservative tile, with Laxalt ahead of Cortez Masto 56-27.

Complicating the environment for Cortez Masto is President Biden’s continuing unpopularity. Nationally, Biden’s approval rate is 42 % according the FiveThirtyEight average. In Nevada Biden’s approval is 41%, with 57% holding an unfavorable view, 5% higher than his national unfavorability of 52%. Cortez Masto herself does better than Biden, with 45% favorable to 52% unfavorable.

The governor’s race has seen the most heat, with both trading barbs over abortion and crime. Challenger Lombardo leads incumbent Sisolak 45-42 statewide, with likely voters in Clark County split 44-44 with only 5% of voters remaining undecided.

Sisolak is viewed less favorably than Lombardo. He has 43% favorable to 55% unfavorable, while Lombardo has 45% favorable to 48% unfavorable. Lomboardo also downplays both Trump and the 2020 election issue.

Attorney General will be more important in 2024 with suits over election rules and results likely, as will be Secretary of State.

Attorney General has incumbent Democrat Aaron Ford facing Republican challenger Sigal Chattah, a civil and criminal defense attorney. This is the closest of the races, with Chattah leading Ford 39%-37% with 17% undecided. In 2018, Ford defeated his Republican opponent by less than 5,000 votes of nearly 1 million cast.

Chattah has repeatedly sought to cast Ford as weak on crime, denouncing policies reducing sentences for nonviolent crimes,, with a leaked text message from Chattah saying she thought Ford “should be hanging from a f-ing crane.” Chattah is a strong Trumper.

Secretary of State sees Republican Big Lie believer Jim Marchant leading Democrat Cisco Aguilar 39%-31% - outside the margin of error - with 21% undecided and 3% saying they would vote “none of the above.” Libertarian Ross Crane received has 2% support. The Secretary of State runs and certifies elections.

On Saturday night during Trump’s rally in Minden suppoting Lombardo and Laxalt, Marchant told the crowd, “When my coalition of secretary of state candidates around the country get elected, we’re gonna fix the whole country and President Trump is going to be President again in 2024.” Perhaps he didn’t mean “we’re gonna fix the whole country” the way it sounded, but it certainly reveals the far right conspiracy that is operating in plain sight to steal the election in 2024.

There are also three Questions on the ballot, which could affect turnout.

Sixty-two percent of survey respondents said they support Question 1, known as the Equal Rights Amendment, asks voters if the Nevada Constitution should be amended to guarantee equal rights regardless “of race, color, creed, sex, sexual orientation, gender identity or expression, age, disability, ancestry, or national origin.” It is ahead 62%-23% with 15% undecided..

Question 2 would place a $12/hour minimum wage in the Nevada Constitution. This is supported 63%-29% with 7% undecided.

Question 3 would implement open primaries and ranked-choice voting. It is opposed 40%-38% with 20% undecided, making it a definite swing issue. A previous Nevada Independent/OH Predictive Insights poll in August had support for the issue 42%-27% with 33% undecided. Supporters spent $2.4 million in the first half of the year while opponents spent $1.2 million. The Republican increase in advertising for all races in September included opposition to Question 3.

CNN/SSRS polling for Nevada, also released today, shows the following:

Laxalt leads Cortez Masto 48%-46% statewide, while Lombardo also leads Sisolak 48%-46%. President Biden’s job disapproval is 59%, dragged down by concerns about the economy.

Republicans are in a stronger position in Nevada because they nominated candidates for Governor and Senator who are considered “reasonable” because they do not get up and say the things their fellow Secretary of State candidate promised: “we’re gonna fix the country and President Trump will be President again in 2024.” But they stood there silent when he said that, and were happy to listen to Trump’s whine about having the 2020 election stolen and how the government “should return all my records” from the Mar A Largo search.

They have in Jim Marchant one of the two looniest Secretary of State candidates in the country, the other being Mark Finchem in Arizona who says he doesn’t believe Biden won in Arizona because he doesn’t know anyone who voted for him.

And the “reasonable” Republican candidates are fine with Marchant publicly proclaiming his extremism.

Seven percent of Nevadans will decide who their senator is, while five percent will decide who will be governor. “Reasonable” candidates who say nothing when an extremist advocates destroying the system are not “reasonable.”

They’re complicit.

Thirty days of a commercial featuring Marchant’s insanity, while Laxalt and Lombardo stand there mute in their support, just might affect those “undecideds.” That is if the Dims who run Democratic communications are smart enough to put some money into such an ad.

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