MORE UKRAINIAN SUCCESS
More good news from Ukraine regarding the counter-offensive against the Russians.
The UK Ministry of Defense reports that Ukrainian forces have definitely taken Makariv and Moschun near Kyiv. There is now a “realistic possibility” that the Ukrainians can encircle the Russian forces in Bucha and Irpin.
Ukrainian Army reports that they have taken Irpin and continue fighting for Bucha and Hostomel.
This Ukrainian offensive, if successful in taking the towns listed above, will cut off the Russian forces south of Kyiv from resupply and reinforcement. In “lay terms” that means they become candidates for either body bags or white flags.
What this all means is - if the Ukrainians take Irpil, Bucha, and Hostomel from the western Russian flank - the Russians there will be in a BAD spot. Not only will it cut off the forces to the south, but the Ukrainians will gain enhanced observation capabilities - particularly at night - when they are able to use man-portable night/thermal optics right on top of a concentration of Russian forces. This will make night time drone hunting far more effective.
If the Ukrainians use the Switchblades we've recently donated to them here, they can target artillery batteries to prevent civilian shelling of the city. They can also target Russian anti-air systems if they have the Russian radar sites mapped out via signals intelligence collection (which they either are doing themselves or getting from NATO). The Russian mobile SAM sites are the most difficult to track, but targeting them at night with drones flying at low levels - beneath their coverage - could result in significant degradation of their capability, which could lead to increased strikes against supply convoys during the day.
The Russian “Alligator” class amphibious landing ship “Orsk,” which arrived in Berdyansk several days ago, was hit by what may have been either a commando attack or a drone strike overnight. It is still on fire at the pier, with secondary explosions from the munitions it was loaded with. This puts a crimp in their plans to make a landing at Odesa.
“The destroyed ship in Berdyansk could carry up to 20 tanks, 45 armored personnel carriers and 400 paratroopers,” the Ukrainian deputy defense minister, Anna Malyar, said in a statement on Thursday. “This is a huge target that was hit by our military.”
UPDATE: The NATO conference in Brussels has decided to provide anti-ship missiles to the Ukrainians. This will allow them to defend Odesa from sea invasion, which had been the main threat since Russian land forces have been stopped in their advance from the Crimean peninsula.
Amidst this good news, a PS: North Korea launched a new missile overnight that appears to have telemetry in excess of a 6,000+ kilometer peak, carries multiple re-entry vehicles on board, and can likely touch any major metro in North America north of Mexico City, west of the Mississippi.
PPS: Today, March 24, marks one month of Putin’s assault on civilization. It’s hard to remember what I was doing on February 22. Lenin was right: “There are decades when nothing happens, then there are days when decades happen.”
In January, retired General Leonid Ivashov, the head of a group of serving and retired Russian military officers declared that invading Ukraine would be “pointless and extremely dangerous.” It would kill thousands, he said, make Russians and Ukrainians enemies for life, risk a war with NATO and threaten “the existence of Russia itself as a state.” Reached today, the general said, “I do not disavow what I said.”
“We can definitively say that nothing is going to plan,” said Pavel Luzin, a Russian military analyst. “It has been decades since the Soviet and Russian armies have seen such great losses in such a short period of time.”
As always: “Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.”
This is encouraging news - if the recent performance of the Russian army is much indication, a move to surround the group west of Kyiv and cut them off from their support might well trigger a mass surrender, especially among the conscripts (many of whom would probably not want to risk returning to Russia, where they will not be welcomed as war heroes). At that point, it might not be that hard to break the morale of other Russian formations. I think in fairly good time, we will be discussing what penalties Russia should face for this travesty - and that is, if they do NOT use chemical or biological weapons. If they go that route, Russia would be done for the rest of this century..... I'm in favor of forcing Russia to return the Donbas and Crimea to Ukraine - Putin should be made to pay a permanent price - the pro-Russian population should be allowed to return to Russia, or made to understand that they are now Ukrainians.....
That's very welcome news and makes perfect sense, right up until the PS. The lunatic that evidently still is alive in NK has to understand that we would vaporize his country if he even tried to attack us. I know they have been busily building fortified bunkers hundreds of feet below ground that they think will protect them, but I would posit that like rats they will have to come up to breathe and eat, and if all of their escape routes are blocked they will have been busily digging their own tombs.