MACRON'S SHITSHOW

Results are in from the first round of voting in the special National Assembly legislative election in France that was held today.

The far-right National Rally, which led in polls over the leftist New Popular Front, Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Together and the center-right Republicans leading up to the first round of elections Today came in first place. The final poll had the far-right National Rally (RN) winning, compared to 2022 where they were polling at third place. President Emmanuel Macron's Ensemble (ENS) has fallen to third place.

Fortunately I have a good French friend, Sébastien Privat, who I’ve known for the past 30 years (another scale modeler - we’re everywhere!). I read something over here reporting on events in France and forward it to him with the header “Is this real?” and get a solid on-the-ground report from a guy who’s as involved in politics there as I am here.

Last night (Sunday in France) he told me he had voted Green for the first time ever, “so I could at least vote for someone I didn’t want to kick.”

The results are now in; as he put it: “Fascists: 34%; New Popular Front: 28%; Government assholes: 20%”

The National Rally party is a neo-Vichy fascist political movement founded after DeGaulle ended the war in Algeria in 1962 by now-convicted Holocaust denier Jean-Marie Le Pen, a former paratrooper veteran of that war. Originally on the fringe of the fringe of the far right fringe in France, it has become a mainstream political player under the leadership of his daughter, Marine. Despite whitewashing the image, and changing the name from National Front to National Rally (RN), the party still attracts the French version of a Trump-loving MAGAt. Sébastien once explained Marine Le Pen as “Donald Trump in a dress with a brain.”

She and her protégé Jordan Bardella - who couldbecome Prime Ministyer if the RN takes a majority in the sdecond round - portray the RN as a grown-up organization with little resemblance to the National Front led by her father.

Macron who, since he became President of France, is “cordially hated by everyone who didn’t vote for him and by many who did” according to my friend, who admits to voting for Macron in 2022 due to the Le Pen threat. To the surprise of everyone, he called the National Assembly elections after National Rally beat his “centrist” alliance in European Parliament elections on June 9 with more than twice the number of the votes, saying he wanted to reaffirm his party’s mandate.

Even his allies wonder why he took the risk when the far right was flying that high.

According to my friend, there is a theory that perhaps Macron anticipated that his party would lose, but calculated that the best way to discredit National Rally ahead of the presidential elections in 2027 would be to give it a chance to govern; in the one time the party ever took control of a local government - in Toulon in 2001 - it was unable to make any of the political reforms it campaigned on, while the fascist who was elected mayor proceeded to do things like rescind an award to an acclaimed French author from Toulon who is Jewish, and moved to deny assistance to local political groups representing the minority communities and transfer that to what he called “the real French.” That government was voted out in 2006, and the mayor was later convicted of bribery and other financial chicanery.

Of that theory, my friend says “If it’s true, then Macron is even more stupid than I have given him credit for.”

If the National Rally were to win an absolute majority after the second round of elections next Sunday, it would be free to introduce its bills. But should it only win a plurality, it would be forced to seek alliances, with the risk of getting embroiled in parliamentary power struggles.

While many on the left convinced themselves to vote for Macron in 2022 to block Le Pen from the presidency, an alliance of the Left Coalition with Macron’s party now has dimmed since Macron increasingly portrayed his opponents on the left as being “far left” and equally as dangerous as the far right during the campaign. Thus, the most logical way to keep Le Pen out of power - a coalition of the #2 and #3 parties - has been made difficult if not impossible by Macron himself.

As my friend put it, “It’s a shitshow, and it’s not even as entertaining as your shitshow.”

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