HOW IT HAPPENED - PART 1

Today I begin a series that may be difficult for some readers, because it’s going to contain bad news from knowledgeable sources, and analysis from me that will be holding us (including me) up to a mirror we may not like looking into. But if things are going to change for the better, we have to understand our mistakes and our failures - from the White House down to this writing desk - and learn what needs to be changed.

And now the (bad) news:

Democrats not ready to give up on retaking the House, despite long odds

From Semafor:

Even as Democrats nurse their despair over Donald Trump’s triumphant victory in the presidential race, they’re still clinging to hope that they can take narrow control of the House of Representatives.

But their optimism is running into reality.

Democrats’ path to retaking the House now hinges on winning nearly all of the still-uncalled races, mostly in the West. Some of their biggest hopes to pick up GOP seats are nearly out of reach: Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon is running ahead of his Democratic challenger, while Wisconsin Rep. Derrick Van Orden saw his victory called in the middle of Wednesday.

“The path is there. Tight and narrow,” one senior House Democratic aide insisted to Semafor.

That tight path relies on gains in California, where Republican Reps. Michelle Steel and Ken Calvert are currently ahead of their challengers, as well as Oregon’s 5th District, where Democrat Janelle Bynum is leading GOP Rep. Lori Chavez-Deremer. Democrats also hope to lock in a third New York pickup thanks to Laura Gillen, who currently has a thin lead over GOP Rep. Anthony D’Esposito.

But half of those Democratic gains were effectively wiped out as Trump cruised in Pennsylvania, helping Republicans topple incumbent Reps. Susan Wild and Matt Cartwright. And some Democratic lawmakers are urging their party to recognize it’s in the wilderness.

“We swung the pendulum too far to the left,” Rep. Ritchie Torres, D-N.Y., told Semafor. “We are increasingly becoming the party of the college educated rather than the working class. And as a result, we are paying an electoral price for it. I hope we have a serious reckoning with the results of the election.”

A Democratic takeover of the House would pave the way for its first Black speaker in current minority leader Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y. By contrast, a narrow Republican majority would give Trump’s party complete control of Washington.

Democrats will presumably start grappling with the huge implications of their loss during a planned Thursday call, although some of them seem doubtful that their leaders, at any level, are prepared to face reality.

Another Democratic senior aide told Semafor that they would be “shocked if any of the leaders have a plan.”

Republicans are still projecting confidence when it comes to holding the House: “We are right where we thought we would be,” one party operative said about the still-uncalled races.

The GOP flipped at least one of its targets in the Lansing, Michigan area, taking the House seat currently held by Senate hopeful Rep. Elissa Slotkin. But in other areas, centrist Democrats are hanging on so far: Rural Maine Rep. Jared Golden is ahead of his Republican opponent with three-quarters of the vote in, and rural Washington Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is also ahead of her GOP challenger.

Those potential victories, however, won’t quell the clear desire among some Democrats for a wholesale revisiting of how their party talks to voters.

“We fared very poorly yesterday,” Sen. George Helmy, D-N.J., said on Wednesday. “There’s opportunity, and the opportunity here is [for] the Democratic Party: that we look at its messaging and look specifically at how it’s talking to the working class.”

Regardless of which party takes the House, people on both sides acknowledge whoever is speaker will inherit a slim majority — setting up two more years of frantic struggles to get legislation passed, as Republicans have experienced this year.

“Buckle up,” one GOP operative said, predicting that another two years of narrow control by either party will embolden individual members to take legislative hostages: “Every House member is about to be Joe Manchin.”

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