EVENTS I THINK WILL INFLUENCE THE MID TERMS

There are 119 days to the mid-terms.

Last niht, Belgium defeated the US Men’s National Team in a World Cup playoff by a score of 4 to 1. So much for “I’m really smart about these things” Trump’s enshittifying intrusion into the games, which makes the US loss another demonstration that everything the senile old SOB touches, dies.

Both domestically and internationally, there are a number of items developing that will affect the outcome of the mid term elections on November 3, 2026.

This post deals with domestic concerns. Wednesday’s post will look at international events.

Domestically, things are even worse for the GOP.

MAGA Mike sent the House home early for the July 4 break last week when the far right of the GOP House majority shut things down over their demand that the SAVE Act be included in the must-pass NDAA legislation, In an interview on Fux Snooze Sunday, MAGA Mike declared he is “committed” to passing the SAVE Act to help Trump suppress the Democratic vote in November. (He should be more worried about suppression of the MAGAts, most of whom likely do not have their birth certificates handy or possess passports - the two things the SAVE Act sets as being needed for “proof of citizenship” to vote.)

House Republican leadership plans to include in their third reconciliation bill a $4 billion pot of incentives for states that require voter ID and check the citizenship status of every voter. This provision may or may not pass muster with the Senate parliamentarian. Furthermore, Trump has said he doesn’t want a watered-down SAVE America Act, and that’s what this move would represent. MAGA Mike has talked with GOP lawmakers about advancing a bill that would crack down on sanctuary cities, or another to put new restrictions on birthright citizenship. (Neither would go anywhere in the Senate if they pass the House.) His problem with this plan is that hardline House Republicans would almost certainly demand tens of billions of dollars in spending cuts to social programs to pair with the massive influx of new Defense Department funding. The fact that Democrats are salivating at the chance to run against budget-slashing Republicans, makes it very difficult to get politically endangered House GOP lawmakers to enact further cuts to government programs.

Many Republicans in Congress are concerned that the mail-in voting restrictions that Trump is attempting to bully everyone into passing ahead of the midterms do not even have the votes they need in the House, let alone the Senate.

This morning, Trump demanded Republicans combine a series of voting reforms with the NDAA must-pass defense spending bill he is pushing Congress to pass, in a long-shot bid to bring both measures to his desk before lawmakers leave on an extended recess. He again said he will not sign any other legislation until the measure becomes law. He announced the new plan overnight to try to move the election reforms, he told congressional leaders to attach it to the request for $350 billion in additional funding for the Pentagon, part of a mega bill wrapping all the GOP election-year priorities in one bill. “I am calling on House and Senate Leadership to make this their Number One Priority, and ensure that 350 Billion Dollars in Recon 3.0 moves out of the Budget Committee as soon as Congress is back in session. “The SAVE AMERICA ACT, which everyone is asking for, paired with the full funding of our Great Department of War, can be passed very quickly, ensuring that the United States of America stays FREE for Generations to come.” Howe exactly he plans to use a law passed at the earliest by late July (assuming there is a House majority to do this, which is not the case right now) to force states tp adopt this onlytwo months ahead of the onset of early voting remains on of life’s mysteries. Trump’s order came on the heels of MAGA Mike’s announcement that he’d make one last attempt at passing voting restrictions when Republicans return from the July Fourth holiday break at mid-month.

All of these moves face the fact that the House has just 24 legislative days until Election Day, with six of those fly-in days. Lawmakers will be out for all of August, a week in September, and all of October. So that means there are just 18 real legislative days before the midterm elections. That is not enough to get the collection of broken toys that are the House GOP to pass a resolution in favor of motherhood, let alone anything else. Top that with the fact that Senate GOP leader John Thune has already said his caucus is not interested in trying to pass a third reconciliation bill before the elections. MAGAS Mike and the House GOP leaders also have been unable to pass the NDAA defense authorization bill. If Anna Paulina Lunatic’s blockade of the floor continues, House Republicans may be forced to enter negotiations with the Senate lacking a version of the NDAA to negotiate from. This would put the House at a significant disadvantage come the lame-duck session.

Things like this don’t do Republicans any favors: Monday, the Tenth Circuit overturned a victory for three Colorado election deniers accused of sending armed canvassers to voters’ doors to intimidate them over the 2020 election. Shawn Smith, Ashley Epp, and Holly Kasun - co-founders of the United States Election Integrity Plan - had won at trial, but the Tenth Circuit reversed that ruling Monday and ordered a new trial against all three, as well as USEIP itself. USEIP volunteers - sometimes armed and wearing badges designed to look official - went door-to-door across Colorado targeting minority communities, demanding voters explain how they cast their ballots in 2020. The case centers on what the court called “alleged voter intimidation by private citizens investigating claims of election fraud following the 2020 presidential election.” The original lawsuit said canvassers sometimes claimed to be from “the county” while falsely accusing residents of casting fraudulent ballots. Rather than confronting voters at polling places, the complaint argued, USEIP targeted voters “in the place where voters should feel safest - their own homes.” The lower court had thrown USEIP out of the case entirely, a legal error that prevented the trial judge from seeing the full picture of the group’s conduct, the appeals court ruled. “Unincorporated associations are capable of ‘intimidat[ing], threaten[ing], or coerc[ing]’ just as living individuals can do the same,” the court wrote.

“Unincorporated associations are capable of ‘intimidat[ing], threaten[ing], or coerc[ing]’ just as living individuals can do the same,” the court wrote. The ruling found that the Voting Rights Act must be read to provide “the broadest possible scope” in combating racial discrimination. The case now returns to a lower court for a new trial against all defendants, USEIP included. Smith, a retired Chair Farce Colonel who worked for former crack addict Mike Lindell, also has close ties to Qanon and was involved in the Jan. 6 insurrection.

All of the above does not mean that everything is hunky-dory for Democrats and opposition to Trump.

The fact that FCC Chairman Brendan Carr has already changed the shape of one of the country’s top daytime talk shows - before even making any formal demands - has largly gone under the radar over the last everal months. The View - which has become a must-visit campaign stop for politicians - hasn’t hosted a candidate in a competitive race since February, when the FCC began investigating the show’s compliance with the agency’s “equal time” rule. The View also recently rebuffed a pitch by a representative for New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani to let fellow democratic socialists Darializa Avila Chevalier and Claire Valdez accompany him on the show, with one person citing the ongoing FCC investigation. It’s this kind of quiet uncertainty that makes things far worse than the looming Ellison takeover of CNN, which may be completed when Paramount takes control of Warner Brothers by the middle of next week. In that case, people are aware of what is happening. The kind of silent withdrawal happening on The View is very different.

Let’s be charitable and say only that this past weekend’s events in the Michigan Democratic Senate primary, and the overturning of the Maine contest between Graham Platner and Susan Collins yesterday “make things more problematic” for Democrats in their push to take control of the U.S. Senate after the November Mid-Terms. In fact, I think these events are a torpedo amidships for those Democratic hopes.

The withdrawal of Mallory McMorrow from active campaigning in Michigan now puts two candidates with the kind of opposing views on an important policy that can lead to those voters who end up on the losing side of the coming primary election less likely to put that opposition to the side in the name of party unity for the November election. Abdul El-Sayed - the progressive candidate - holds a pro-Palestinian position; his opponent Haley Stevens, who is backed by Chuck Shumer and the Democratic Establishment, is strongly pro-Israel. On most other policies, the two campaigns are not that far apart, though El Sayed supports Medicare for All, while Stevens supports restoration of the Obamacare cuts Republicans made last year and the participation of private for-profit health insurance companies in that restoration. The fact El-Sayed’s political supporters are pushing his support for Medicare for All and not making any statements about Palestine is an indication they are aware of the potential problem. The most recent polling, from Quantus Insights, showed El-Sayed with 41% support; Stevens 36%; McMorrow 8%. A poll by a super PAC that supports El-Sayed also asked voters ahead of McMorrow’s suspension of her campaign how they would vote if El-Sayed and Stevens were the only two candidates, and found the progressive up 54-34. The problem is not McMorrow supporters; it is unknown percentages of supporters for El-Sayed and Stevens and their reaction to losing.A divided Democratic party - with the loss of an unknown percentage of voters in November - would assure the election of Republican Mike Rogers. Also, Emily’s List, the prominent organization dedicated to electing pro-choice Democratic women to office, has announced they back Haley Stevens over her progressive challenger, Abdul El-Sayed.

The big news is Monday’s thermonuclear explosion in the Maine Senate campaign.

The cause is the accusation of Graham Platner of sexual assault, by Jenny Racicot, a 41-year-old Maine resident, detailed in a report of the alleged incident by Politico in three interviews over the past two weeks. The incident has been corroborated by a man Racicot dated, as well as “emails between Racicot and her therapist and messages between Racicot and an acquaintance whom she warned against getting involved with Platner years before he ran for office.” In the complaint, Racicot said she knew Platner for two years “before he entered her rural Maine home uninvited one night in late 2021, deeply intoxicated, and forced himself on her while she repeatedly told him to stop.” After this alleged incident, she says she told him the encounter wasn’t consensual and cut contact with him. Racicot said she did not report the incident to authorities at the time, and she broke off contact with him soon afterward. Asked if she now considered the incident a rape, Racicot said, “By definition yes, absolutely yes.”

Minutes after Politico published the story, Platner said his campaign is “taking the time to reflect on the best path forward for the state that I love, the people that I love, the movement I belong to and the goal of defeating Susan Collins. Those were the goals when we launched this campaign and they remain my goals today.” In a 2-minute video posted on the campaign’s website, he stated: ““I wanted to directly address the troubling, serious and false allegations against me. Any accusation of non-consensual behavior is categorically false. “ He was able to successfully mount a defense to a charge of domestic violence by a woman who has been a career Republican operative with a similar statement, but this is categorically different; Racicot is a Democrat who shares Platner’s views. Platner canceled a series of campaign events just before the Politico report came out, sparking speculation that he could exit the race. Platner has said he was dealing with Alcohol Use Disorder and PTSD during that period, which are not good combinations. His wording in his response shows (to me at least) that the campaign is going to hold position and see how the response to the accusation plays out. Platner has one week to withdraw as the Senate nominee - by 5 p.m. on July 13 - to allow a different candidate to make the run to November. He currently trails Collins by double digits with the white, blue-collar voters that progressives were hoping he could win over.

In a later statement, the Platner campaign called the allegations “coached and coordinated by out of state establishment operatives.” They then accused the accuser: “For a year, opponents of this campaign have thrown everything they can at Graham –– calling him a Nazi, a war criminal, and a communist. None of it has been true and this is no different. It is not a coincidence that this story comes a week before the ballot deadline, just as the previous false allegations came a week before the primary. Graham began this campaign to fight for a Maine where everyone is treated with dignity and where Mainers are put first, and no amount of desperate smears will stop this movement from seeing that vision through.” This has all the marks of Famous Last Words.

Democratic leaders have withdrawn support for Platner. “I’ve been very clear that sexual assault or violence against women is a red line,” tweeted Rep. Ro Khanna. “These allegations are very serious and credible. Graham Platner should drop out from the race. I am withdrawing my endorsement.” Khanna had been one of Platner’s most steadfast supporters, appearing with him at a public event days after revelations that he’d cheated on his wife and intimidated some of his former girlfriends were published. There was no surprise that Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chair Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) would call the allegations against Platner “absolutely unacceptable” and said “the DSCC will not invest in the Maine Senate race if Platner remains on the ballot.” The Maine Democratic Party too has called on Platner to leave the race. Platner’s biggest Senate backers, Senator Elizabeth Warren withdrew her support last night, calling on Platner to “step aside as the Democratic nominee and address these serious allegations outside this Senate race.”

Senate questions aren’t just for Democrats. Is Mitch McConnell dead? McConnell suffered a heart attack on June 14, and aides have refused to provide details about his condition other than insisting he was recovering in the hospital. Laura Loomer, who has close White House ties, claimed Monday that McConnell is “brain dead” and will not be returning to Congress. Desiree Townsend, the journalist who first obtained a recording from emergency responders saying McConnell was unconscious after suffering a cardiac arrest on June 14, wrote on X: “I have heard the same thing from my sources for days. At this point, I am at the hospital for when they eventually decide to... cut him off of life support and move his body. His Capitol police detail is still here as of 3:39 p.m. ET.” There is a general belief among political observers that McConnell’s staff is trying to keep him “alive” until August 3, the cut-off cate that would prevent an immediate election to replace him before the November election; the word is that the Kentucky GOP is afraid if such an election were held, Thomas Massie would jump in and possibly win, which would upend all Establishment plans for the replacement of McConnell in the November election. Kentucky law allows McConnell to be declared dead with a medical pronouncement of “brain death.” A McConnell staffer stated, “The Senator continues to improve, and is working closely with his staff on Kentucky and Senate matters while the Senate is out of session.”

It’s not just in Kentucky. Iowa is suddenly looking very different to the GOP. Iowa was supposed to be safe Republican ground, but an Iowa political analyst said Monday the GOP is worried about holding a Senate seat in a state Trump carried by 13 points in 2024; he is now “underwater” in Iowa. Appearing on Joe Trippi’s “On the Ground” podcast, Laura Belin, who runs the progressive Iowa site Bleeding Heartland, said the open contest to replace retiring Sen. Joni Ernst has become a real fight. “It’s the most exciting election cycle in Iowa that I’ve ever covered,” she said, calling both the race for governor and Senate “competitive.” “The Senate race, when we talked last time, that was viewed as a likely Republican hold. And now the election forecasters have shifted it to lean Republican, and I agree with that rating. But just this week we saw a poll that showed Josh Turek a little bit ahead, so I can tell you that Republicans are sincerely worried about Ashley Hinson in that Senate race.” Belin argued Hinson is vulnerable partly because she has tied herself tightly to Trump even as his standing slips. She said she has not seen a single poll putting Hinson at or near 50%. A Fox News poll conducted in late June found Turek ahead of Hinson, 50% to 46% among registered voters. After Turek won his primary, the Cook Political Report shifted the race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.”

What all these items show is that we are in a period of great uncertainty. The question of whether Democrats control the Senate in the new Congress may run through different states than has been previously thought, with Iowa a prime example. The question of how politically mature party voters can be compared with previous polarized elections may determine the result in Michigan. Things could still be successful in Maine with a different candidate. While domestic political hopes by Republicans look to be getting more difficult, as shown in the party’s inability to make use of its congressional majority, these prospects are also hostage to what happens in the next 4-6 weeks in Trump’s War with Iran.

One thing is certain for Democrats and opponents of this criminal presidency: getting out and working harder than ever to elect Democrats is the only road that leads to any victories. We cannot allow ourselves to be discouraged by campaign events in Maine or anywhere else. It’s time to be willing to push ourselves the “extra mile” as it was 250 years ago. Are we going to do less than the Revolutionary Generation did?

Remember, you are not the crazy ones, and we were made for these times. Regardless of what you may feel right now, act as if you believe that and redouble your efforts.

“Neither let us be slandered froim our duty by false accusations against us, nor frightened from it by menaces of destruction to the Government, nor of dungeons to ourselves. Let us have faith that right makes might; and in that faith, let us, to the end, dare to do our duty, as we understand it.” - Abraham Lincoln

Robin and Cookie

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