DAY OF THE KAMIKAZE DRONES

This week the Kremlin has responded to its recent setbacks with violent escalation, launching indiscriminate strikes on civilian areas in Ukraine while also targeting the country’s energy infrastructure. This morning Ukraine woke up under another rain of fire as Russian forces launched a massive wave of attacks against Kyiv and nearby cities using both cruise missiles and “suicide” drones; the latter are the Iranian-made Shahed 136, renamed Geran 2 by the Russians. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claims 37 such drones and 3 Kalibr cruise missiles were shot down, while an unspecified number struck their targets.

The attacks are part of Russia’s broader strategy to weaponize the imminent winter in its favor, leaving Ukrainians in the cold and dark while also raising energy costs and domestic political anger across Europe. Putin seems to believe he can coerce his enemies into quitting before he suffers a major defeat.

Agence France Presse published photos showing a Geran 2 just seconds before and after it struck its target, taken by photographers Yasuyoshi Chiba and Sergei Supinsky. These definitely confirm that the Geran 2 and Shahed 136 are the same, despite Iran’s denial that they have sold the drones to Russia.

Additionally, there are unconfirmed reports that Iranian instructors are in the occupied territories of southern Ukraine, to launch and operate the Shahed 136s while performing hands-on training for the Russians. Following the mantra “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”, Israel is said to be providing intelligence about the Shahed 136 to their Ukrainian counterparts.

The Shahed-136 is a flying wing with tip fence-type winglets, 2.5 meters in length with a wingspan of 3.5 meters. It is said to weigh around 200 kg and is propelled by a piston engine and propeller, with a rocket booster used for the launch, capable of a speed approximately 185 km/h. Most sources say that it is a “direct attack munition”, since it lacks loitering capability.

They are precise, small, and able to engage a target in relatively large numbers like a swarm of wasps; above all, they’re cheap. According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russia might have acquired 2,400 Shahed 136s.

At a cost of $20,000 apiece, the Shahed costs a tiny fraction of a more conventional, full-size missile like the Kalibr cruise missiles that cost the Russian military about $1 million each.

The drones have cemented their reputation as a potent, hard-to-stop and cost-effective weapon to seek out and destroy targets while simultaneously spreading the kind of terror that can fray the resolve of soldiers and civilians alike.

Russia’s launching of successive waves of the Shahed drones over Ukraine has multiple aims: take out key targets, crush morale and ultimately drain the enemy’s war chest and weapons trying to defend against them as the conflict evolves into a long war of attrition.

According to Mykola Bielieskov from Ukraine’s National Institute for Strategic Studies, the Shahed only carries a 40-kilogram (88-pound) explosive charge, this pales in comparison to the explosive force of the 480-kilogram (1,050-pound) warhead of a conventional cruise missile like the Kalbr can deliver at a much longer range. However, at such a low cost, the Shahed can be deployed in massive numbers to saturate a target, whether it’s a fuel depot, infrastructure, or utilities like power or water stations.

Despite its small size, the Shahed’s explosive charge appears powerful enough to do the job. On Monday, one struck an operations center, while another slammed into a five-story residential building, ripping a large hole in the structure and collapsing at least three apartments on top of each other, killing three people.

The incessant buzzing of the propeller-driven Shahed drones, which have been dubbed “mopeds” by Ukrainians, is equally potent for the terror that it can induce in anyone under its flight path. That sound exacerbates anxiety and chips away at the morale of any person, since no one knows exactly when and exactly where the weapon will strike. This morale problem was widely seen in southern England in the summer of 1944 when the Nazis launched 9,500 V1 “buzz bombs” against London.

Seizing on the drones’ terror element, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy posted on social media: “The whole night, and the whole morning, the enemy terrorizes the civilian population. Kamikaze drones and missiles are attacking all of Ukraine.”

Bielieskov conceded that Shahed drone strikes stir up fears among the population that Ukraine’s air defences are inadequate to meet the threat. But he said their use — even at in large numbers — isn’t enough to reverse Ukraine’s battlefield gains.

Over the summer, reports began to surface that Russia was negotiating the purchase of drones from Iran. The Shaheds have primitive navigation systems and are more missiles than drones, crashing into their targets and exploding rather than delivering a payload and returning home, thus earning them the nickname of “kamikaze” or suicide drones. In June, Russian military officials toured Iranian facilities, inspecting the goods. In late August, Russia began receiving its first deliveries. Then, on Monday, October 17, dozens of Shaheds rained down on Kyiv, destroying buildings, terrorizing the city, and killing four people, including a young pregnant woman and her husband.

Ever since the Ukrainian attack that severely damaged Putin’s prized Kerch bridge to Crimea, the Russian strategy has been to bring the war to as much of Ukraine’s population as possible and paralyze the country’s infrastructure ahead of the winter. Today, President Zelensky announced that one third of Ukraine’s power stations have already been destroyed in the past week. The Ukrainian government is warning citizens that they have to start preparing for a winter without heat, water, and other essentials. Tonight Kyiv was dark. This is Russia taking the battle to Ukrainian civilians, trying to exhaust the population and to push them into submission.

The greater involvement of Iran marks a shift in the war. After nine months, both sides have used up a lot of ammunition. While Ukraine is now largely supplied by the West, “Russia has been fighting alone,” said military analyst Michael Kofman. “Russia has significantly depleted its arsenal of long-range precision guided weapons. They’ve also expended a lot of their drone systems, which were a laggard in their military-industrial complex, many of which had only recently entered serial production.”

Iran has plenty of the cheap, simple drones and munitions Russia needs to maintain its campaign of terror on Ukrainian cities. The Iranians are also preparing to ship Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar ballistic missiles to Russia which are far more difficult for Ukrainian defenses to deal with.

It is also a new turn in the Russian-Iranian relationship, which has always been a fraught one. Russia, which sees itself as an unjustly-deposed superpower now reclaiming its rightful place on the world stage, views Iran as a regional power that can be used as it sees fit. Traditionally, Russia has supplied Iran with weapons, like complex air defense systems and fighter jets. Turning to Iran, a country it very much sees as a junior partner, for relatively simple weapons is not a good look, given the image Russia was projecting before thundering into Ukraine; it’s a hell of a look to be asking Iran for help after running out of basics less than a year in, all while losing the war to a country it so condescends to that it doesn’t even think it’s a real country.

Meanwhile, here in the United States, the Putin-loving authoritarians of the treasonous Trump Party, threaten to cut off Ukraine from the assistance it has received from the United States and to follow up on Dear Leader’s plan to monkeywrench NATO, should the worst happen and these traitors be returned to power in three weeks.

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