CONTROL OF CONGRESS IS NOW A "JUMP BALL"

Interestinger and interestingerer…

From CBS News:

The Republicans have a lead. But it keeps shrinking. 

While they're still in a very good position to capture a House majority, that majority looks narrower today than it ever has, having ticked down for the second straight month to 223 seats in our model estimate. Republicans were at 226 in August and 230 in July.

Two-thirds of voters feel their rights and freedoms are very much at stake in this election — more so even than say their financial well being is.

And each side feels if the opposition gained control of Congress, people like them would have fewer rights and freedoms than they do now. 

68% believe their rights and freedoms are at stake.

57% believe their financial well-being is at stake.

53% believe their safety is at stake.

46% believe their “culture” and “way of life” is at stake.

Voters believe by two to one that a Republican Congress would lead to women getting fewer rights and freedoms than they have now, rather than more rights.

By more than four to one, if Republicans win, voters think any change in rights for LGBTQ people would see them getting fewer rights, not more.

Democrats' lead on the abortion issue is a little bigger now, while Republicans haven't grown their support among voters prioritizing the economy since last month. 

Republicans have the same lead they did in August among voters who say the economy and inflation are "very important" to their vote. 

Democrats now have a slightly larger lead among those saying abortion is very important than they did in August. 

People who think the economy is very important think the Republicans are talking about immigration and President Biden more than about their economic policies.

If Democrats want this contest to be about abortion, we can clearly see why:

The idea of a national abortion ban is very unpopular: 70% of voters oppose it.

Voters overwhelmingly reject the idea of the state requiring a woman to give birth if she were to become pregnant through a case of rape or incest, instead saying that decision should be left up to the woman. 

Abortion is a make-or-break issue for most women voters. Seven in 10 women say a candidate must agree with them on that to get their vote. That's higher than other issues tested. This is especially the case for women who want abortion to be legal. A larger percentage of them rank the issue as very important than either the economy or inflation.

Abortion is now the top issue for Democratic women.

By a substantial margin, voters say the overturning of Roe makes them more likely to back a Democratic candidate than a Republican one.

The Republican base overwhelmingly likes that GOP governors are sending migrants to Democratic areas of the country — nearly nine in 10 approve. Views on this are split on party lines overall.

One third of Republicans — and fully half of MAGA Republicans — think the Republicans should plan to challenge states and districts the Democrats win in 2022, and not accept the results. Only 17% of Democrats feel Democrats should similarly challenge if the GOP wins.

More voters are voting to oppose Trump than support him, on balance.

Here's a reason the Democrats still trail: 

Despite enthusiasm growing, Democrats are still less likely than Republicans to say they'll definitely vote. They haven't closed that gap. (A big part of that is young people being less likely to turn out.)

Once we get beyond those most concerned with abortion, the Democrats still have work to do making this midterm electorate look like midterms that they've won.

47% of age 18-29 say they are likely to vote.

62% of age 30-44 say they are likely to vote.

82% of age 45-64 say they are likely to vote.

91% of 65+ say they are likely to vote.

Plenty of partisans continue to see the other side as enemies, threats to their way of life — not just political opponents. It's the case for over half of Republicans, with MAGA voters especially seeing things this way, and for almost half of Democrats. 

The result of this clash is a midterm election where control of the House is up in the air. If the abortion voters flood the polls, Democrats may keep the House and expand their Senate majority. If the angry Republicans are the dominant turnout, Republicans will win the House, but Democrats remain likely to keep the Senate.

“Run like you’re 10 points down till 5 minutes after the polls close.”

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