CAN UKRAINE WIN?

It was reported this morning (Wednesday 3/23) that Ukrainian ground forces had retaken the suburb of Makariv, west of Kyiv.

Why is Makariv important? It’s a suburb that sits on a major road West of Kyiv.

It is believed that a large body of the Russian force is positioned south of Makariv. If the Ukrainians now hold Makariv, then resupply of this portion of the Russian force is going to be somewhere between difficult and impossible. That force would have to move heaven and earth to break through to reconnect with Russian forces to the northeast. If it doesn’t, it’s doomed.

If you wanted to be optimistic, you’d look at this situation a few different ways: (1) The fact that Ukrainian forces are even capable of mounting a counterattack at this point is remarkable. (2) This counterattack is not born of desperation. U.S. intelligence saw the ability to wage it coming: when they stated this morning that Ukraine is now “able and willing” to take back territory from Russian units.

Based on what has been seen of Russian units in Ukraine over the past three weeks, if that large Russian force really is cut off, do you think they’ll (a) Commit to trying to achieve a breakthrough to reconnect with the main body? Or, (b) Sit in place / walk away / surrender?

How far away from total collapse is the Russian army? Maybe it’s a fantasy, but from the battlefield deaths of generals, to the amount of abandoned equipment, to the logistical disasters, nothing about this army looks competent or mission-focused. Is it possible that the defeat or surrender of one big chunk of the force could trigger a cascade?

NATO officials said on Wednesday that up to 40,000 Russian soldiers have either died, been injured, captured, or are missing in action. That is around 20 percent of the total force of 190,000 the Russians had announced they were sending into Ukraine at the outset of their invasion.

According to the British Ministry of Defense, “Ukraine is increasing pressure on Russian forces northeast of Kyiv. Russian forces along this axis are already experiencing considerable supply and morale issues. Ukrainian forces have probably retaken Makariv and Moschin. There is a realistic possibility that Ukrainian forces are now able to encircle Russian units in Bucha and Irpin. It is likely that successful counterattacks by Ukraine will disrupt the ability of Russian forces to reorganize and resume their offensive toward Kyiv.”

A U.S. defense official states that Russian forces east of Kyiv have been driven back 35 miles from the city. These forces were within 20 miles of Kyiv at the weekend.

The Russian Army may be technologically advanced and numerically superior - but its inexperience and lack of motivation are becoming crucially important. If a Russian battle unit was to surrender to the Ukrainian army, this would be a disaster for Putin of epic proportions.

There has been talk recently regarding the potential for internal instability in Putin’s regime, with reports of various high-level officials being arrested such as the commander and deputy commander of the FSB Fifth Bureau for their failures in providing intelligence in planning the attack on Ukraine.

Right now, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu hasn’t been seen in public since March 11 so he has not been seen for 12 of the 28 days of war in Ukraine. Possibly because of “health concerns.” Shoigu is usually very active in the media. With his arrival at the Ministry of Defence, the number of staff in the press service increased sharply and the agency began to pay a lot of attention to its public image. Until 11 March, Shoigu used to appear in the news almost every day. In response to questions, his entourage has responded that he has heart problems, according to an acquaintance. It’s possible this is nothing; the average life expectancy for a Russian man is about 66 years. But it might be somewhat lower for high-level officials who embarrass the grandson of Stalin’s cook.

The Russian Army is not even in control of the cities it claims to have taken. There has been video of Ukrainian demonstrations against the occupiers; in Kherson, Russian troops were shown firing at demonstrators. Moving from demonstrations to actual resistance and sabotage is the next stage.

Military observers have stated that the Russian Army was in need of replacing losses and reorganizing to enable them to make progress. If this is what they are doing, it means they are vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks because they are disorganized, and new units - mostly of other conscripts - will not be ready to face combat.

“There’s no mass mobilization and nothing is heard about its preparation. It’s impossible to win this war without that,” wrote Igor Girkin on his Telegram channel on Wednesday, critiquing the number of troops Russia has committed to the invasion. Girkin, who’s also known as “Igor Strelkov,” is a former Russian FSB officer who played high-profile roles in Russia’s 2014 Ukraine campaign, participating in the seizure of Crimea and in instigating a war in Ukraine’s east. He ended up serving, for a short time, as defense minister of the Donetsk People’s Republic, one of two Kremlin proxy governments created in the region. He wrote, “The [Donetsk People’s Republic] armed forces are moving forward a little, however, the Ukrainian Armed Forces regularly counterattack. The enemy also has very serious losses, but their mobilization reserve is much more significant, by many times.”

Precisely because the stakes are so high, the next few weeks will be extremely dangerous. Putin will do what he can to create fear. In his speech last Friday, he spoke of Russia’s need for “self-purification” using a word with the same root as “purge,” the term that Stalin used when ordering the liquidation of his enemies. Putin is deliberately evoking the worst and bloodiest era of Soviet history to avoid even a hint of domestic opposition. He has just thrown away thirty years of economic gains, thirty years of Russian integration with the outside world, thirty years of investment in modernization in order to turn the clock back; he does this to cow his domestic opposition. Putin and his propagandists are dropping hints about chemical and nuclear weapons for the same reason. They want outsiders, and especially Americans, to fear the consequences of helping Ukraine.

The war has rendered Russia’s foreign policy untenable. Putin is pursuing ambitions that the Russian economy and the Russian polity will not be able to realize. Although Putin will not fundamentally recalibrate, Russia cannot escape the fact that - once again, as has happened in every other confrontation with the West - its ends outstrip its means.

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