AND NOW THE (BAD) NEWS

Searching the shelves for kittens and rainbows this morning, I was only able to find one frisky little kitten left, this one carrying the news that “effective altruist’ crypto-con billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried was out $12 million and didn’t have a congressional candidate to show for the money. Yes - his never-run-before, totally-unknown Democrat Carrick Flynn (who it turns out he never actually met face-to face, since both of them put you and me to shame in our pandemic fastiodiousness) - got creamed by a two-to-one margin by state legislator Andrea Salinas, despite his massive cash advantage; Salinas got 38% compared to Flynn’s 19%.

Not only did SBF get a political punch in the nose, so did Nancy Pelosi’s PAC, which also supported Flynn on the idea he must be the most electable since he had the most money. And indeed, there may be a lesson in Flynn’s loss for SBF, as well as for the Democratic Party at the top, about the aftershocks of big-money politics. The decision to bankroll Flynn originated in the same math-first, optics-second principles that define their community of political philanthropists, and professional political consultants. (I was once asked to join what was then one of the first political consultancy firms with Big Dreams, composed of people I worked with in Sacramento. Unfortunately, it was composed primarily of the people I worked with in Sacramento who made me want to throw up whenever I thought about them; they’re the type of people who have overrun politics like kudzu in the South since.)

Bad news for Crypto Bros = good news for the rest of us.

We need to pay attention to Tuesday's midterm elections in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Kentucky, Idaho and Oregon, which are the closest thing to a Super Tuesday so far this midterm cycle, as possible previews of important election contests for November.

But first, I think it’s important to look at how the Democratic primaries are revealing a shift in party strategy as it chooses candidates for tough races in purple and red states.

Last night, rather than go with a moderate white male or female candidate who could appeal to swing voters as has been the case in several races in recent election cycles, voters chose candidates who are more in tune with the party's base in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Kentucky.

In North Carolina, former North Carolina Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley, a progressive Black woman, easily won; in Kentucky, Charles Booker, a Black state senator who ran without a challenge after surprising the Democratic establishment when he nearly defeated former their chosen candidate two years ago. In Pennsylvania, the entire campaign’s most interesting candidate - John Fetterman - ran an aggressive, outside the box campaign, and beat Representatrive Conor Lamb, the prototype of the cautious and moderate white male candidate - who never forget, did flip a red congressional district in Pennsylvania; he’s not a slouch, he’s just not what’s needed now.

For the past two cycles, the profile of candidates recruited by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer fit a mold: moderate (white) Democrats with a compelling story, preferably with military experience. In 2020, Booker lost to establishment-backed Amy McGrath, a retired Marine Corps fighter pilot, who turned out to be no match against Mitch McConnell. In North Carolina, Cal Cunningham, a retired Army Lieutenant Colonel, lost to Sen. Thom Tillis. In Texas, M.J. Hegar, an Air Force veteran, lost to Sen. John Cornyn.

All three candidates who won last night are more progressive than candidates Democrats usually run in swing states. It's unclear how well they'll do in a statewide general election, but their primary wins are a sign local party leaders and Democratic voters no longer see centrism as the only or best path to victory in purple and red states.

And now, to some Really Bad News, reported today in Punchbowl News’ morning newsletter. This has to be taken seriously; the reporters at Punchbowl are seriously Plugged In to what is going on in D.C.:

House Democrats may be in worse political peril than they’ve let on publicly.

During a Thursday luncheon last week with DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney, Frontline Democrats – the party’s most endangered lawmakers – were told that, in battleground districts, the generic Republican is beating the generic Democrat, 47-39.

To say the least, this is a stunning margin that highlights the incredibly perilous position Democrats find themselves in.

Given that Democrats generally have a three- or four-point built in advantage on the generic ballot, this is a particularly concerning development for Speaker Pelosi’s majority. An eight-point deficit on the generic ballot could be a sign of a wave for House Republicans.

Samuel Johnson once famously said that “nothing so composes the mind as the knowledge one is to be hanged in a fortnight.” It appears that composing of the mind may be happening with the party now; hopefully it is not too late. Democrats were told that they should refer to House Republicans as “MAGA Republicans.” This tactic, they were told, would help them improve the political environment by linking every House Republican to former President Donald Trump without mentioning Trump himself.

Personally, I think they should mention Trump, for reasons that will become obvious as you read further. But a campaign based on scaring the hell out of Democratic and Independent voters about “MAGA Republicans” is a good idea - since it happens to be true that these people do indeed constitute The Greatest Threat To The Existence Of The Republic, Ever! and if anything can convince Democrats that off-year elections about local races are something they should finally learn to pay attention to, scaring hell out of them may be it.

That bad news was followed by a caucus-wide briefing at DCCC headquarters this past Tuesday, when Democrats were told that Frontliners are outpacing President Joe Biden’s job approval by 21.8 percentage points. Depending on how you look at it, this is either a commentary on Biden’s low approval ratings or the relative strength of House Democrats – or both.

Let me just say right here that there is nothing that drives me crazier than the fact that a president who has done just about everything that can possibly be done with regard to the pandemic - despite total opposition from the “loyal” opposition, and who has done a masterful job in dealing with the greatest military crisis in Europe in 77 years, is polling lower that Fatso Fatass, the Great Incompetent.

I can go along with the DCCC strategy that “Frontline Democrats’ record of delivering for their communities means they head into November ready to defeat extremist MAGA Republicans, who will have to defend their plan to implement a nationwide abortion ban and their embrace of white supremacist ‘great replacement’ theories.” Now the question is how to get the over-educated, under-intelligent, otherwise-unemployables of the Washington Press Corpse to notice any of that.

The GOP smells blood in the water right now. Biden’s deep unpopularity and the political ditch Democrats find themselves in has been shown in private polling conducted by the Congressional Leadership fund, Kevin McCarthy’s super PAC.

CLF polled 16 districts Biden won by an average of eight points and found his job approval rating is eight points underwater - and the generic ballot is tied.

Republicans now believe that seats in districts Biden won by eight points in 2020 are now “toss-up” districts. These include seats held by Reps. Abigail Spanberger (Va.), Kim Schrier (Wash.), Mike Levin (Calif.), Angie Craig (Minn.), Susie Lee (Nev.) and Jahana Hayes (Conn.) as well as the Oregon seat held by Blue Dog Kurt Schrader appears to have lost his race to progressive Jamie McLeod-Skinner. The Oregonian reported McLeod-Skinner was beating Schrader 61% to 39%. If McLeod-Skinner wins, Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report has said he will move the race from Lean Democrat to Toss-up, which makes that seat an even more attractive target for the GOP

Polling in these districts revealed that 49 percent of voters say they want a Republican in Congress to provide a check on Biden, rather than a Democrat to help pass Biden and Pelosi’s agenda, and that those candidates campaigning on that get 42 support. The average incumbent Democrat was at 44 percent in these districts with a 38 percent favorable to 25 percent unfavorable rating. I am reminded that Winston Churchill once wrote that the best argument against democracy was a five-minute conversation with the average voter.

Democrats are counting on the Supreme Court’s looming decision to overturn Roe v Wade paying political dividends. But an eight-point deficit on the generic ballot is particularly brutal.

There are a bunch of primary results from last night that I think we should look at.

Pennsylvania Lt. Governor John Fetterman easy dispatch of Conor Lamb to win the Democratic nomination for the Senate is a real bell-ringer. Fetterman got 59% to Lamb’s 26.4%. What an absolute trouncing in a swing state key to controlling the Senate.

There’s nothing to say about the GOP side, which is too close to call and will end in recount regardless who may be declared the winner now. Thank god Uber MAGAt Kathy Barnette came in a distant third.

It looks like the best news of the night for Democrats was the win by General Jack D. Ripper, er, I mean Kolonel Krazy Klunk, er, I mean state senator Doug Mastriano, a Trump Uber-Crazy who attended the January 6 insurrection in the GOP race for Governor. Attorney General Josh Shapiro won the Democratic nomination. Most handicappers have moved the race to Lean Democrat.

However, I keep remembering in 2016, how everyone I knew said that, no matter what, Trump couldn’t possibly win.

News I like just because: Madison Cawthorn, my candidate to star in the remake of “Kiss of Death” with me playing Tommy Udo in the “wheelchair scene,” lost. But only by a few points and despite everything he still got 30+% with the majority of that on same-day votes after getting a half-assed endorsement from El Blobbo Del Mar A Lardo.

Surprise surprise, in the state where you can’t tell the Mormons from the Nazis, Idaho Governor Brad Little trounced the craziest Trump-endorsee of all, Militia-loving Lt. Governor Janice McGeachin, 53.1% to 31.8%.

.Why I find Fetterman interesting:

Only 38 percent of American adults have a bachelor’s degree. Yet college graduates have come to dominate the Democratic Party’s leadership and message in recent years. The party also tends to nominate candidates who seem more comfortable at, say, Whole Foods than Wal-Mart. (Clarity note: I am one of the 13.1% of “elitist” American adults who hold a post-graduate degree. Additionally, my local Trader Joe’s is only three minutes away and the trip to the local Whole Foods takes only six minutes. Since the local Wal-Mart is a 25 minute drive mid-day, I usually order online for delivery)

The shift “upward” has helped the Democrats win over many suburban professionals while also helping explain its struggles with working-class voters, including some voters of color. On many social issues, today’s Democratic Party is more liberal than most Americans without a bachelor’s degree.

The basic theory of Fetterman’s candidacy is that personality and authenticity matter at least as much as policy positions. On many issues, his stances are “flaming liberal,” supporting Bernie Sanders and taking very progressive positions on Medicare, marijuana, criminal justice reform and LGBTQ rights. During the campaign, he said, “If you get your jollies or you get your voters excited by bullying gay and trans kids, you know, it’s time for a new line of work.” He is also 6-foot-8, bearded and tattooed, and he doesn’t like to wear suits.

He’s the former mayor of Braddock, a blue-collar town in western Pennsylvania where 70 percent of residents are Black. He declined to move into the lieutenant governor’s mansion and spends many nights home in Braddock. He talks about having been around guns for most of his life. And he is opposed to a fracking ban - as he points out, taking into consideration changes in technology that make it less an abomination.

Holly Otterbein of Politico called him “unfussy and plain-spoken” in contrast to “a party often seen as too elite.” One suburban voter in Pennsylvania — making the same point in a more skeptical way told The NYT, “I think sometimes he might come off as not a polished person.”

Given the Democrats have been more likely to choose ideologically-consistent candidates whose presentation resembles that of a law professor or think-tank employee. Fetterman - like many working-class voters - has a mix of political beliefs. Describing his appeal to voters, Sarah Longwell, a Republican political strategist, said: “It’s not that he’s progressive that they like or don’t like. They like that he’s authentic.”

For years, Centrist Democrats have urged the party to move to the center on almost every issue, even though most voters support a progressive economic agenda, such as higher taxes on the rich. Liberal Democrats have made the opposite mistake, confusing the progressive politics of college campuses and affluent suburbs with the actual politics of the country. Some liberals make the specific mistake of imagining that most Asian, Black and Latino voters are more liberal than they are. As a shorthand, the mistake is sometimes known as the “Latinx problem” (referring to a term most Latinos do not use or like).

Fetterman is going to be well funded (I already got a fund-raising e-mail this morning) and is positioned to flip a red Senate seat blue. He has already promised his support for getting rid of the filibuster, and for protecting Roe.

Why I Get Scared by Last Night’s Results:

While Fetterman is a good example of what the Democrats can do positively, General Ripper, er, I mean Colonel Kook, Greg Mastriano, is the perfect example of what the Republicans have become.

Mastriano said, “They like to call people who stand on the Constitution far-right and extreme. Forcing your kids to mask up, that’s extreme. Forcing health-care workers to lose their job for not getting a jab. It’s extreme when you shut down businesses in our state.” He denounced coronavirus restrictions, opposes critical race theory and compares himself to Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who he said will look like an “amateur” should he win.

His candidacy is supported by the explosive growth of politicized, right-wing charismatic Christianity, a strand of evangelicalism that emphasizes the “gifts of the spirit,” such as speaking in tongues, prophecy, direct revelation from God, casting out demons, faith healing, spiritual warfare, and Christian nationalism. Escalating even before Trump weaponized it, Christian nationalists believe America had a divine, Christian founding, and that patriotic believers must rescue it from secular and satanic forces. Among these overlapping and interconnected movements and trends are the “word of faith” movement, also known as the prosperity gospel; the New Apostolic Reformation, which teaches that modern-day apostles and prophets receive prophecies from God and are called to take dominion over secular institutions; and seven mountains theology, which holds that Christians have a divine directive to take over the “seven mountains” of public life, namely religion, family, education, government, media, arts and entertainment, and business.

Over the 50 years in which this kind of evangelicalism has become a force in Republican politics, these movements have become more widely influential, owing to televangelism, the proliferation of conferences and books, and, more recently, social media and podcasts. As the means of spreading these ideas grow, there are fewer barriers to entry in a sprawling market of self-styled prophets and spiritual warriors — a phenomenon that also has played out in the arena of QAnon, which has also captivated pro-Trump white evangelicals.

For these people. Trump’s irreligiosity was of no consequence; they are convinced God had chosen an “unlikely” leader to save America, and in this quest, his autocratic nature was a feature, not a bug.

Mastriano is campaigning on Trump’s stolen election lie, but so much more. He is one of the Trump religious acolytes who could be elected to an office from which he can unlawfully manipulate election outcomes because God told him to, election subversion in 2024 could definitely appear “wrapped in the flag and carrying the cross.”

Mastriano’s victory caused The Cook Political Report to say that the general election was no longer a toss-up and Shapiro is favored to win. But as I wrote earlier, I remember how Trump was favored to lose throughout 2016.

As Bill Kristol pointed out last night, Mastriano is the first full-on 2020 election denier/potential 2024 election overturner to win the GOP nomination in a key swing state. He could well be followed by Republican nominees who are election deniers and potential overturners in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona. These swing state governor races in the 2022 general election will very likely be the most important of the year.

Mastriano won by sweeping more than 40 percent of the GOP primary vote. It only cost about $1.6 million. That’s all he raised in his successful bid for the Republican nomination to be Pennsylvania’s next governor, in which he vanquished eight challengers. Compare that with the expenditures in the GOP Senate race in Pennsylvania.

Remember: the Republican base wants what it wants. Mastriano knows what that is.

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